Soccer Betting Under Over 2.5 Goals

Soccer predictions under over 2,5 goals Betting on under over 2,5 goals is one of the most popular kind of bettings. It offers good odds and with only two outcoming results the chance to win is very high. Here we show you the best betting tips for under and over 2,5 goals. People also search: “free under over soccer picks“, “over under predictions soccer“, “under over predictions” or “under over 2.5 tips“. If you are interested in finding “under over statistics” or “under over 2.5 goals strategy” please follow our betting systems page!

• May 29,2020
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Betting on football is slowly becoming a more mainstream activity all over the world. Punters are actively looking for betting opportunities that are more lucrative than the traditional ‘win-draw-lose’ or the 1x2 market as it is commonly referred to.
Many bettors are choosing to switch over to the over/under market, as one would usually be able to find better prices and higher odds. This market is easy to understand and is also very entertaining, which makes it the perfect market for someone looking to make some money. Read on for some strategies to help you do just that.

Over and Under 2.5 Goals Betting Strategy

If you’re growing tired of traditional betting markets, and you’re looking for something to spice up your betting life, the Under Over Total Goals market might be the right one for you. It is entertaining, easy, and profitable – pretty much the perfect combination, everything that a punter should look for.

What is over/under goals?

To win an over/under bet, you have to guess whether the overall number of goals scored by both teams at the end of the match would be over-and-under a particular total that is set by the bookmaker. We’re going to be looking into the 2.5 goal market. Essentially, a total of 2 goals or less would be considered as under, and a total of 3 goals or more would be over.

Given how erratic and unpredictable football is, guessing the total number of goals is understandably tricky. At times, we’ve seen teams score goals during overtime. But some strategies would increase your chances of winning. Read on to find out what they are.

When it comes to betting on the over/under market, stats don’t lie. It’s all about picking the right teams and the right leagues.

Over 2.5 goals

There is no shortage of great leagues out there with several high scoring matches, and that makes them a goldmine for the over 2.5 goals market. The Bundesliga is excellent for this type of betting, as it is a very high scoring league, as is the Bulgarian Cup, as well as the Netherlands’ KNVB Cup.
Apart from competitions, you should also keep your eye on specific high-scoring teams. When a top-flight team like Inter Milan, Bayern Munich, or Ajax take on a newly promoted team, for example, the match would likely be incredibly one-sided, and many goals would be scored, albeit only (or mostly) by one team.

Under 2.5 goals

Just like the over 2.5 goals market, it’s all about making the right choices. There are plenty of low scoring competitions out there that would be perfect for this. Brazil’s Serie B and the Iran Pro League are good tournaments to start with.
When it comes to teams, it is wise to pick matches where both are evenly matched in terms of skill. They should be able to balance each other out, and both sides should be able to keep the other from scoring.

Soccer bettors are increasingly looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, for which a lack of goals or a late equaliser can deny even the best judgments a winning bet. A straightforward way to try and beat the bookies on the soccer front is with the Over/Under goals markets. This article offers a simple step-by-step guide on how to calculate probabilities for the expected number of goals in a match and convert them into odds, so that you know what to bet on and what to avoid.

Step 1: Find the average number of goals per game

In comparison to most sports, scoring in soccer is a less frequent event and it is certainly not uncommon for a match to feature no goals whatsoever. This means that when it comes to betting, bookmakers study the average number of goals scored per match for the two teams involved in the fixture in question when assessing the odds for the Over/Under markets.

If over 2.5 goals for a Premier League match is available with Pinnacle at 1.925 and another bookmaker is offering the same bet at 1.800, you know that you are better off at Pinnacle. However, how you do assess if it is worthwhile betting your money on this market to begin with?

Suitably, the best place to start is with the same method as the bookmakers - by finding the average number of goals per game for the two teams involved in the match you are interested in betting on.

This is generally an easy figure to research online. To provide some detail, here are the average goals per game for several major soccer leagues and competitions during the last three seasons:

As the above table highlights, major soccer leagues and competitions have predominantly averaged between 2.5 and 3 goals per game in recent years, although any given league or competition should be considered on an individual basis. For instance, last season the Hong Kong First Division averaged a massive 4.12 goals per game, whereas the El Salvador Premiera Division only mustered a mere 1.83.

Step 2: Calculate the probabilities

The random nature of goal scoring enables statistics to follow a poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for Over/Under betting. It is important to establish what that means in practice.

In his book Taking Chances, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occuring by using the above table.

Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and mutiply them together to calculate the probability for each scoreline:

Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet.

In this example, that would be:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

Step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on

Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept.

To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula:

In the above example, a 67.56% possibility corresponds to an equation of 100 / 67.56, which equates to decimal odds of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookmaker offering odds of higher than 1.48.

Naturally, this approach does not guarantee a winning bet. However, it does provide an easy to apply betting strategy with positive expected value that should secure profits over a long span of time when aggregrating your long-term losses and profits.

Do this research ahead of any match you are considering placing an Over/Under goals bet on and you can sit back and enjoy the action, knowing that you have put yourself in the best possible position to win your bet.

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